For years, NBA fans knew the drill. Somewhere around February, a handful of teams would quietly give up. Stars would sit with “sore knees,” rookies would play 40 minutes a night, and the losses would pile up, all in pursuit of better odds at the top pick.
If you were in a pool, those teams were a gift. Picking against them was about as close to a sure thing as basketball gets.
This season, that changes.
What the NBA changed
Back in May, the NBA’s Board of Governors voted 29-1 to overhaul the draft lottery with what the league calls the new “3-2-1 Lottery”. The rules apply to the 2027 NBA Draft, which means they’re in play for the entire 2026-27 season.
Here’s the short version:
- The worst teams get punished, not rewarded. The three teams with the worst records now get only two lottery balls, while teams finishing fourth- through 10th-worst get three. Finishing dead last actually hurts your odds.
- The lottery grows from 14 to 16 teams. Play-in teams get lottery balls too, so the race for the 9th and 10th seeds now has draft stakes attached.
- No more repeat jackpots. Teams can’t win back-to-back lotteries or pick in the top five three drafts in a row.
- The league office can step in. If the NBA decides a team is tanking, it can cut that team’s lottery odds, move its draft position or hit it with significant fines.
The rules are locked in through at least the 2029 draft.
Why this is a big deal for your pool
Tanking didn’t just make for ugly basketball. It made pools predictable. When a few teams are clearly playing for lottery balls, everyone in your pool picks against them, and the standings come down to coin-flip games.
With every team now pushing for wins all season, that safety net is gone. Here’s what it means for each pool type:
Pick’em: Expect fewer “free” weeks. Teams that would have folded in March will now be fighting for play-in seeds and the lottery balls that come with them. Late-season upsets should be more common, so the poolies who actually follow the standings will pull ahead.
Survivor pools: This is where it gets spicy. In past seasons, the go-to Survivor strategy was saving picks against the league’s worst teams for later in the year. Now those bottom-feeders have a reason to compete right up to the final buzzer. Plan your picks carefully, because the “safe” pick is not as safe as it used to be.
Draft pools: Players on rebuilding teams won’t be shut down as early, which could mean more games and more stats down the stretch. Young players on bad teams might be sneaky value picks.
Box pools: More competitive games mean tighter scores and more nail-biters, which is exactly what makes a box pool fun to sweat.
Will it actually work?
That’s the big question. NBA front offices are full of very smart people, and some analysts already expect teams to look for loopholes. For example, a team might try to avoid the bottom three without climbing high enough to miss the lottery. Watching how teams handle it is one of the most interesting storylines of the season.
One thing is clear: with no obvious losers to bank on, the standings in your pool are going to be a lot more interesting.
Start your NBA pool before opening night
The 2026-27 NBA season tips off Tuesday, October 20, with Celtics vs. Pistons, 76ers vs. Knicks and Thunder vs. Spurs. That gives you just enough time to get your crew together.
Office Pools offers every NBA pool format, including Pick’em, Survivor, Draft, Open and Box. Admins pay one flat fee, and everyone else joins for free. Whether it’s your office, your friends or the family group chat, setup takes minutes.
This season, every game counts. Make sure yours do too.
